Chicago police recorded 12,321 narcotics offenses in the latest reporting period. They made arrests in 11,660 of them. That is a 94.6% arrest rate.
But if your home is broken into, the math flips entirely. Out of 18,316 reported burglaries, police made just 783 arrests. That drops the clearance rate to a mere 4.3%.
When analyzing Chicago municipal open-data crime incident records, the probability of an arrest swings wildly depending on the exact nature of the crime. The data reveals a stark divide between proactive policing categories and reactive property crimes.
Bottom line: Chicago police clearance rates show a massive gap between offenses discovered by officers on patrol—like Narcotics (94.6%) and Weapons Violations (73.2%)—and property crimes reported by victims after the fact, like Burglary (4.3%) and Theft (8.6%).
Highest Arrest Rates in Chicago Offenses
The Chicago offense arrest statistics highlight a clear trend: crimes that typically require an officer to witness the event have the highest clearance rates.
Narcotics leads the major categories. With 12,321 incidents and 11,660 arrests, it clears at 94.6%. Close behind is Liquor Law Violation, which saw 323 arrests out of 344 incidents (93.9%).
Prostitution follows a nearly identical pattern. Out of 402 recorded incidents, police made 375 arrests, resulting in a 93.3% arrest rate.
Here's the thing:
These high percentages do not necessarily mean police are solving complex investigations at a 90-plus percent clip. Instead, these are largely "officer-initiated" incidents. An incident is usually only logged in the system because an officer made an arrest.
The Impact of Weapons and Homicide Clearances
Weapons Violation is one of the highest-volume categories with a strong arrest rate. The data shows 10,270 total incidents and 7,519 arrests. This 73.2% clearance rate reflects targeted enforcement regarding illegal firearm possession and discharge.
Homicide presents a different scenario. It is a reactive crime, but one that receives maximum investigative resources.
Out of 832 homicides in the dataset, police recorded 263 arrests. This 31.6% arrest rate sits much lower than narcotics, but significantly higher than standard property crimes.
Top Chicago Crimes with Arrests (By Percentage):
| Offense Type | Total Incidents | Total Arrests | Arrest Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Narcotics | 12,321 | 11,660 | 94.6% |
| Liquor Law Violation | 344 | 323 | 93.9% |
| Prostitution | 402 | 375 | 93.3% |
| Weapons Violation | 10,270 | 7,519 | 73.2% |
| Homicide | 832 | 263 | 31.6% |
| Other Offense | 29,138 | 5,639 | 19.4% |
| Battery | 76,646 | 14,058 | 18.3% |
Offenses with Lower Arrest Rates
Property crimes and delayed-report offenses tell a completely different story. When a crime is reported hours or days after the perpetrator has fled, the Chicago arrest rate plummets.
Burglary is the most difficult major crime to clear. With 18,316 incidents logged, police made only 783 arrests. This 4.3% clearance rate is the lowest among the high-volume offense types analyzed.
Stalking also shows a remarkably low arrest rate. Out of 1,032 reported incidents, only 51 resulted in an arrest (4.9%).
The result?
Victims of theft and property damage are highly unlikely to see an offender taken into custody. Theft is the highest-volume crime in the dataset, with a staggering 98,809 incidents. Yet, it yielded only 8,531 arrests, an 8.6% rate.
Offenses with the Lowest Arrest Rates:
| Offense Type | Total Incidents | Total Arrests | Arrest Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burglary | 18,316 | 783 | 4.3% |
| Stalking | 1,032 | 51 | 4.9% |
| Offense Involving Children | 2,690 | 187 | 7.0% |
| Kidnapping | 176 | 13 | 7.4% |
| Sex Offense | 2,225 | 177 | 8.0% |
| Theft | 98,809 | 8,531 | 8.6% |
| Arson | 688 | 62 | 9.0% |
Understanding Arrest Rate Variations
To read this data accurately, you have to separate the nature of the offense from the reporting mechanism. The numbers do not exist in a vacuum.
Several structural factors drive the massive gap between a 94% clearance rate and a 4% clearance rate:
- Discovery vs. Reporting: Narcotics offenses are discovered by police during searches or traffic stops, meaning the arrest and the incident report happen simultaneously. Burglaries are reported by homeowners returning to an empty house.
- Evidence Availability: Weapons violations often involve a physical gun recovered on a suspect. Thefts often involve no witnesses, no physical evidence, and limited surveillance footage.
- Victim Cooperation: Crimes like Battery (18.3% arrest rate on 76,646 incidents) often depend on the victim's willingness to press charges or identify the attacker.
- Resource Allocation: Homicide units operate with dedicated detectives and specialized forensic tools. Standard property crimes are typically handled by district patrol officers carrying heavy daily call loads.
Public Peace Violations in Chicago: Incidents and Arrests
While macro arrest rates show how police handle broad categories, zooming in on specific offense types reveals how individual encounters unfold on the street. Public Peace Violation is a mid-volume offense in Chicago, with 1,913 total records in the current open data pull.
This category functions as a catch-all for disruptive behavior that doesn't necessarily escalate to battery or property damage. A random sample of 15 recent incidents shows exactly how these calls are coded, where they happen, and whether they result in an arrest.
Truth is:
Arrests for Public Peace Violations are highly situational. In our sample, exactly 8 of the 15 incidents resulted in an arrest.
The most common description in this category is "Reckless Conduct." Out of 10 reckless conduct incidents in the sample, 7 resulted in an arrest. Other descriptions trigger different responses. A "Bomb Threat" on W North Ave and a "Tire Deflation Device Deployment" on S Ruble St did not result in immediate arrests.
Sample of Public Peace Violation Chicago Incidents:
| Incident ID | Date | Description | Arrest Made | Neighborhood / Area |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14229856 | 2026-06-14 | RECKLESS CONDUCT | Yes | Community Area 37 |
| 14225281 | 2026-06-10 | TIRE DEFLATION DEVICE | No | Community Area 28 |
| 14224713 | 2026-06-09 | BOMB THREAT | No | Community Area 25 |
| 14228303 | 2026-06-12 | RECKLESS CONDUCT | Yes | Community Area 25 |
| 14140116 | 2026-03-18 | RECKLESS CONDUCT | No | Community Area 8 |
| 14216014 | 2026-06-01 | RECKLESS CONDUCT | Yes | Community Area 8 |
| 14149285 | 2026-03-27 | RECKLESS CONDUCT | Yes | Community Area 64 |
| 14170049 | 2026-04-17 | FALSE POLICE REPORT | No | Community Area 28 |
| 14236610 | 2026-06-21 | RECKLESS CONDUCT | Yes | Community Area 28 |
| 14152334 | 2026-03-30 | RECKLESS CONDUCT | Yes | Community Area 41 |
| 14155264 | 2026-04-02 | RECKLESS CONDUCT | Yes | Community Area 15 |
| 14213536 | 2026-05-30 | RECKLESS CONDUCT | Yes | Community Area 24 |
| 14228422 | 2026-06-13 | RECKLESS CONDUCT | Yes | Community Area 24 |
| 14209731 | 2026-05-25 | ARMED VIOLENCE | No | Community Area 75 |
| 14166659 | 2026-04-05 | RECKLESS CONDUCT | No | Community Area 67 |
Severity Codes and Domestic Flags
The data also tracks severity and domestic involvement. Every incident in this sample carries a severity code of 24, except for the Armed Violence incident in Community Area 75, which is coded as 26.
Only one incident in the sample was flagged as domestic. Incident 14170049 on W Adams St involved a False Police Report with a domestic flag, and no arrest was made.
Geographic Distribution of Public Peace Violations
Public Peace Violations are not isolated to a single district. The data shows these incidents scattered across multiple beats and community areas, from downtown commercial districts to residential neighborhoods.
Multiple incidents often cluster in high-traffic community areas.
Downtown and Near West Side Incidents
Community Area 8 (Near North Side) saw two distinct reckless conduct incidents on N State St. Incident 14140116 occurred in Beat 1834 on March 18 without an arrest. A few months later, incident 14216014 occurred just a block away in Beat 1832, resulting in an arrest.
Community Area 28 (Near West Side) recorded three incidents in this sample alone. This included the tire deflation device deployment on S Ruble St, a false police report on W Adams St, and a reckless conduct charge further down W Adams St that resulted in an arrest.
North and West Side Incidents
Further out, the data tracks disturbances in distinct residential and commercial corridors. Community Area 25 (Austin) recorded a bomb threat on W North Ave (Beat 2533) and a reckless conduct arrest on W Ohio St (Beat 1511).
Community Area 24 (West Town) saw two late-night reckless conduct arrests. One occurred at 1:43 AM on N Milwaukee Ave, and the other at 12:45 AM on W Haddon Ave.
Other isolated incidents in the sample include an armed violence report in Community Area 75 (Morgan Park) and a reckless conduct arrest on W 63rd St in Community Area 64 (Clearing).
Accessing Chicago Police Incident Data
All statistics and incident records referenced here are pulled directly from Chicago's municipal open-data crime portal via Socrata. The city updates these records regularly, providing a transparent look into specific case numbers, block-level addresses, and arrest outcomes.
By analyzing this raw data, we can move past general narratives and look at the actual math behind public safety. You can explore more incident types directly through our offense types database or read further analysis on our blog.
Quick takeaways:
- Proactive vs. Reactive: Crimes discovered by police (Narcotics, Weapons) clear at 73% to 94%. Crimes reported by victims (Burglary, Theft) clear at 4% to 8%.
- Volume vs. Arrests: Theft is the most common crime in Chicago (98,809 incidents) but results in very few arrests (8,531).
- Public Peace Violations: This mid-level offense category covers everything from reckless conduct to bomb threats, with arrests heavily dependent on the specific circumstances of the call.
- Data Transparency: Every number, percentage, and case ID is sourced directly from Chicago's public safety data portal.