The summer months consistently drive the highest volume of public safety responses in Chicago, and recent open data confirms exactly where that ceiling sits. In July 2025, the city recorded 22,391 total incidents.
But raw volume only tells half the story. When you cross-reference total incidents against actual arrests and specific FBI offense codes, a rigid operational pattern emerges.
Bottom line: Chicago police incident counts hit a rolling 12-month high in July 2025, yet the department's monthly arrest rate remained locked at approximately 15% regardless of seasonal spikes. Meanwhile, specific high-severity offenses show massive clearance disparities, ranging from a 92% arrest rate for public indecency to just 9% for arson.
Here is what the latest municipal data reveals about Chicago monthly arrest data, seasonal incident trends, and offense severity.
Chicago Incident Totals: The Summer 2025 Peak
Public safety data follows a predictable seasonal curve. As temperatures rise, so do recorded incidents.
The Chicago police incident counts from mid-2025 through mid-2026 illustrate this perfectly. July 2025 marked the highest point in the recent 12-month window with 22,391 incidents. By January 2026, that number dropped to 15,952—a 28% decrease driven entirely by winter seasonality.
Here is the complete month-by-month breakdown from the city's open data portal:
| Month | Total Incidents | Total Arrests | Arrest Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | 21 | 2 | 9.5% |
| May 2026 | 3,284 | 458 | 13.9% |
| April 2026 | 12,294 | 1,761 | 14.3% |
| March 2026 | 18,000 | 2,659 | 14.7% |
| February 2026 | 15,972 | 2,557 | 16.0% |
| January 2026 | 15,952 | 2,640 | 16.5% |
| December 2025 | 16,960 | 2,497 | 14.7% |
| November 2025 | 17,686 | 2,786 | 15.7% |
| October 2025 | 20,752 | 3,048 | 14.6% |
| September 2025 | 19,856 | 3,037 | 15.2% |
| August 2025 | 20,607 | 3,126 | 15.1% |
| July 2025 | 22,391 | 3,499 | 15.6% |
Understanding the 2026 Data Drop-Off
You are probably looking at the numbers for spring and summer 2026 and wondering about the massive decline.
In June 2026, the system recorded just 21 incidents. This is not a sudden eradication of local crime. Instead, it represents the standard reporting lag in municipal open data systems.
Incidents from recent weeks often take 30 to 90 days to be fully classified, approved, and pushed to the public portal. The data from April, May, and June 2026 will backfill over the coming months to match historical baselines.
Monthly Arrest Figures: 2025-2026 Trends
Raw incident counts tell us how busy dispatchers are. Arrest counts tell us how often those incidents result in someone being taken into custody.
The highest raw arrest total aligned perfectly with the incident peak: 3,499 arrests in July 2025.
But there is a catch.
When you calculate the arrest rate as a percentage of total incidents, the variance almost disappears. The Chicago monthly arrest data shows a remarkably stable operational bandwidth:
- Summer peak: In July 2025, 15.6% of incidents resulted in an arrest.
- Autumn transition: In October 2025, the rate was 14.6%.
- Winter low: In January 2026, the rate bumped slightly to 16.5%.
This means the police department scales its arrest volume in direct, linear proportion to the total incidents. They do not suddenly arrest a higher percentage of offenders during a busy summer; the ratio remains fixed near 15%.
Chicago FBI Offense Severity Breakdown
Not all incidents require the same level of response. Chicago categorizes its open data using FBI offense severity codes, which group crimes by type and investigative priority.
When we isolate specific severity codes, the 15% average arrest rate shatters. Some offenses almost always end in an arrest, while others rarely do.
Here is the breakdown of specific high-profile offenses across severity codes 26, 17, and 09:
| FBI Severity | Primary Type | Total Incidents | Total Arrests | Arrest Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Obscenity | 52 | 31 | 59.6% |
| 26 | Offense Involving Children | 82 | 4 | 4.8% |
| 17 | Offense Involving Children | 498 | 25 | 5.0% |
| 17 | Public Indecency | 26 | 24 | 92.3% |
| 09 | Arson | 666 | 62 | 9.3% |
FBI Offense Code 26: Obscenity and Child Offenses
Under the Chicago FBI offense severity framework, Code 26 covers specific vice and specialized investigative crimes. The data reveals a massive split in how these cases are resolved.
There were 52 total Chicago obscenity incidents recorded. Of those, police made 31 arrests, yielding a nearly 60% arrest rate.
Conversely, Code 26 also captured 82 incidents classified as an Offense Involving Children. Only 4 of these resulted in an arrest.
The result? A 4.8% arrest rate. Cases involving children often require long-term, complex investigations involving the Department of Children and Family Services (DCFS), meaning arrests do not happen immediately on the scene.
FBI Offense Code 17: Public Indecency Disparities
Code 17 shows a similar structural divide. This severity code captures a larger volume of Offense Involving Children reports—498 total incidents.
Just like in Code 26, the arrest rate for these child-related offenses remains incredibly low at exactly 5.0% (25 arrests).
But there is a sharp contrast within the same severity tier. Code 17 also tracks Public Indecency. There were 26 total incidents reported, resulting in 24 arrests.
That is a 92.3% arrest rate. The operational reality here is straightforward: public indecency is an "on-view" crime. If an officer responds to the call and the suspect is still present, an arrest is almost guaranteed.
Arson Incidents: FBI Offense Code 09
Property destruction carries its own distinct statistical signature. Under FBI offense code 09, Chicago recorded 666 total Arson incidents.
These incidents resulted in just 62 arrests.
That translates to a 9.3% arrest rate for Chicago arson arrests. Arson is notoriously difficult to clear. By the time the fire department extinguishes the blaze and investigators determine the cause was intentional, the perpetrator is long gone.
The low arrest rate reflects the heavy forensic burden required to build a prosecutable case.
Quick Takeaways
Understanding municipal crime data requires looking past the raw totals and calculating the underlying ratios. Here is what the latest Chicago numbers actually mean for public safety operations:
- Incident volume is highly seasonal: Total counts swing by roughly 25-30% between the peak of summer (22,391 in July) and the dead of winter (15,952 in January).
- Overall arrest rates are static: Despite massive fluctuations in total call volume, the department consistently makes arrests in roughly 15% of all recorded incidents month over month.
- On-view crimes guarantee arrests: Offenses like Public Indecency (92% arrest rate) and Obscenity (60% arrest rate) result in custody far more often than complex investigations.
- Investigative crimes lag behind: Arson (9%) and Offenses Involving Children (5%) show drastically lower arrest rates, reflecting the time and forensic evidence required to close these cases.
- Recent data is always partial: Any massive drop in the most recent 30 to 90 days of open data is a reporting lag, not a sudden change in street-level reality.